How You Can identify value within your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the top Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and how they supply a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, because of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short within any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or even the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not seem to be much between them but as we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any person bookmaker as they would in theory be sure to lose on the event, they are "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that might give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers may differ to the extent that you may find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you could make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there's absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so might be the most effective value, but this is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with click through the up coming webpage bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you assess the probability of each outcome is just not for this article. It deserves more complete treatment than can be given here where we have been addressing bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the most effective odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it truly is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It's very seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is an excellent one to show just how to use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you may need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. Due to this you'll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or even the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not seem to be much between them but as we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by any person bookmaker as they would in theory be sure to lose on the event, they are "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that might give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers may differ to the extent that you may find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you could make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there's absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so might be the most effective value, but this is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That's your own assessment or your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with click through the up coming webpage bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you assess the probability of each outcome is just not for this article. It deserves more complete treatment than can be given here where we have been addressing bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the most effective odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it truly is necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It's very seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is an excellent one to show just how to use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you may need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. Due to this you'll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.