How Exactly To identify value within your bets? That is the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and the way they offer a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, because of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or even the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not seem to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by anyone bookmaker as they would in theory be certain to lose on the event, they can be "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers can vary greatly to the extent that you could locate a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Therefore you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there's no difference within simply click the next web page odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so could possibly be the very best value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you evaluate the prospects of each outcome is just not because of this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than may be given here where we are working with bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the top odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is essential to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include 2 of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It's very seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises but the illustration is an excellent one to show the way to use percentages.
It really is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. Due to this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form a major part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the possibility of each team winning or even the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not seem to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by anyone bookmaker as they would in theory be certain to lose on the event, they can be "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers can vary greatly to the extent that you could locate a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Therefore you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's pretty obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there's no difference within simply click the next web page odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the very best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so could possibly be the very best value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the possibility of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you evaluate the prospects of each outcome is just not because of this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than may be given here where we are working with bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the top odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is essential to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there's a strong reason to include 2 of the 3 possible outcomes so it's necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It's very seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises but the illustration is an excellent one to show the way to use percentages.
It really is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. Due to this you will need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form a major part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and adding to your betting profits.