Just How To identify value within your bets? That is the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the best Bet quality online soccer gambling agent website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and the way they offer a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, due to the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not seem to be much between them but when we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by anyone bookmaker as they'd in theory be certain to lose on the event, they're "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn't happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers will vary to the extent that you may locate a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there's absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the most effective odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may be the top value, but this really is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you study the prospects of each outcome is not for this article. It deserves more in depth treatment than may be given here where we have been handling bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it's necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the 3 possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is an excellent one to show the way to use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you'll need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. Due to this you may need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the different bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.
A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or the draw would produce a total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there will not seem to be much between them but when we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by anyone bookmaker as they'd in theory be certain to lose on the event, they're "under round" . The losing percentage could be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this doesn't happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers will vary to the extent that you may locate a combination where those for the three possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you can bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there's absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the most effective odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so may be the top value, but this really is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you study the prospects of each outcome is not for this article. It deserves more in depth treatment than may be given here where we have been handling bookmakers' margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it's necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the 3 possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. In the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises however the illustration is an excellent one to show the way to use percentages.
It is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the best odds. All you'll need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. Due to this you may need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the different bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a serious part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.